Economics: Research Guide

Research on the determinants of election fraud typically focuses on conventional factors such as election monitoring, legal punishments, and voter education. This paper examines an often-overlooked factor: whether polling location (e.g., school, place of worship) influences election fraud. Combining validated fraud measures from the 2009 Afghan presidential election with a novel instrumental variable approach, we find that polling centers within schools report an 8 percentage-point lower likelihood of fraud compared to those within mosques. Two mechanisms may explain this difference. First, mosques designated as polling centers were more likely to be attacked by the Taliban, likely suppressi..

Clean-technology investment under policy-regime transition exhibits a structure that the canonical real-options framework characterises only partially. We develop a dynamic-investment model in which an irreversible project decision is taken sequentially across four lifecycle stages (front-end design, final investment decision, construction, operations) under two sources of stochastic variation: the payoff-determining state variable (e.g. carbon price, technology cost) and the policy-regime credibility belief that determines whether the policy environment will persist over the investment horizon. The optimal cancellation policy is characterised by stage-dependent thresholds that respond to fi..

Clean-technology investment under policy-regime transition exhibits a structure that the canonical real-options framework characterises only partially. We develop a dynamic-investment model in which an irreversible project decision is taken sequentially across four lifecycle stages (front-end design, final investment decision, construction, operations) under two sources of stochastic variation: the payoff-determining state variable (e.g. carbon price, technology cost) and the policy-regime credibility belief that determines whether the policy environment will persist over the investment horizon. The optimal cancellation policy is characterised by stage-dependent thresholds that respond to fi..

Countries with a low share of global emissions may perceive their cooperation in decarbonization as less critical yet economically burdensome. While non-cooperating countries may benefit from reduced global emissions at lower direct costs, they can also face significant environmental consequences. This paper investigates an asymmetric scenario in which most countries engage in decarbonization efforts while a single country adopts a free-riding strategy, focusing on Mexico as a case study. Our study provides insights into investment needs compared to environmental implications for a country with a free-riding strategy. The investment needs under free-riding tend to be higher than a baseline s..

Countries with a low share of global emissions may perceive their cooperation in decarbonization as less critical yet economically burdensome. While non-cooperating countries may benefit from reduced global emissions at lower direct costs, they can also face significant environmental consequences. This paper investigates an asymmetric scenario in which most countries engage in decarbonization efforts while a single country adopts a free-riding strategy, focusing on Mexico as a case study. Our study provides insights into investment needs compared to environmental implications for a country with a free-riding strategy. The investment needs under free-riding tend to be higher than a baseline s..

Effectuation theory seeks to explain how entrepreneurs act under Knightian uncertainty through non-predictive control. However, the mechanism through which this control operates remains unclear, and the theory has been criticized for being akin to a random walk. This paper addresses this issue by integrating effectuation theory with a design science perspective on entrepreneurship. We conceptualize venture creation as the iterative design of an artifact whose structure evolves through decomposition and recomposition. Drawing on the property of near-decomposability, we propose that the artifact provides the structural continuity linking successive entrepre-neurial actions while enabling local..

Emotional intelligence (EI) has increasingly been conceptualized as a developable set of emotional abilities contributing to adaptive functioning across adulthood. However, longitudinal evidence obtained in ecological organizational contexts remains limited, particularly for performance-based emotional intelligence frameworks. The present longitudinal field study investigated the effects of a large-scale emotional intelligence intervention implemented within a French public-sector institution using the QEPro performance-based framework of ability emotional intelligence. The intervention combined experiential learning, emotional decoding, and emotion regulation training over approximately 18 ..

Emotional intelligence (EI) has increasingly been conceptualized as a developable set of emotional abilities contributing to adaptive functioning across adulthood. However, longitudinal evidence obtained in ecological organizational contexts remains limited, particularly for performance-based emotional intelligence frameworks. The present longitudinal field study investigated the effects of a large-scale emotional intelligence intervention implemented within a French public-sector institution using the QEPro performance-based framework of ability emotional intelligence. The intervention combined experiential learning, emotional decoding, and emotion regulation training over approximately 18 ..

We examine whether financial performance metrics in CEO compensation contracts provide incentives for environmental performance improvement, and the conditions under which such incentives arise. Using toxic pollution as our primary outcome, we find that relative financial performance evaluation (RPE) is negatively associated with future pollution in firms whose environmental impacts are subject to greater scrutiny, whereas other financial incentives, such as equity portfolio delta and new equity grants, show no such association. This pattern is consistent with theories of corporate social responsibility and, as supported by complementary tests, with the idea that stronger environmental perfo..

Effectuation theory seeks to explain how entrepreneurs act under Knightian uncertainty through non-predictive control. However, the mechanism through which this control operates remains unclear, and the theory has been criticized for being akin to a random walk. This paper addresses this issue by integrating effectuation theory with a design science perspective on entrepreneurship. We conceptualize venture creation as the iterative design of an artifact whose structure evolves through decomposition and recomposition. Drawing on the property of near-decomposability, we propose that the artifact provides the structural continuity linking successive entrepre-neurial actions while enabling local..

The rise of AI-driven technologies, particularly generative AI (GenAI) like ChatGPT, is transforming customer service in hospitality and tourism sectors. These systems enhance user experiences by offering real-time, personalized support and 24/7 assistance. Yet, as sustainability becomes a key factor in travel decisions, consumers increasingly face information overload due to the abundance of eco-friendly options. This study examines how GenAI can alleviate this cognitive strain in sustainability-focused tourism contexts. Across two experiments (i.e., one on trip planning and another on on-site shopping), the findings show that more advanced GenAI tools significantly reduce information overl..

The rise of AI-driven technologies, particularly generative AI (GenAI) like ChatGPT, is transforming customer service in hospitality and tourism sectors. These systems enhance user experiences by offering real-time, personalized support and 24/7 assistance. Yet, as sustainability becomes a key factor in travel decisions, consumers increasingly face information overload due to the abundance of eco-friendly options. This study examines how GenAI can alleviate this cognitive strain in sustainability-focused tourism contexts. Across two experiments (i.e., one on trip planning and another on on-site shopping), the findings show that more advanced GenAI tools significantly reduce information overl..

Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk.

Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk.

Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk.

Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk.

Envy is commonly labeled a negative emotion, yet research distinguishes between benign envy, which motivates self-improvement, and malicious envy, which motivates hostility and derogation. Although both forms are unpleasant, they differ in their motivational consequences. Emotional intelligence (EI) has been linked to adaptive emotional functioning, but little is known about whether ability-based emotion regulation predicts the motivational orientation of envy. In a community sample of French adults (N = 442), we examined whether performance-based emotion regulation ability, assessed within the QEg (Generalized QEPro Ability Measure of Emotional Intelligence) model, predicted benign and mali..

The carbon offset market is a voluntary market where firms trade carbon offsets to compensate for their emissions and comply with cap-and-trade regulations. In contrast to the emission trading market, which involves government-allocated emission quotas, the carbon offset market trades offsets generated from certified emission reduction projects by independent suppliers. While both markets operate concurrently, they are governed by distinct pricing mechanisms and regulatory structures. We develop a game-theoretic model that incorporates the supply side of the offset market, often neglected in previous literature, and analyze how offsets influence firm behavior and emissions trading dynamics. ..

Traditional calibration methods in hydrological models result in parameter values that can compensate for aleatory uncertainties in model forcings (such as rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration, or pesticide application dates). Ignoring aleatory uncertainty can lead to subsequent model simulations being less reliable for taking operational decisions or predicting hazardous events (e.g., peaks of water pollution or floods). Robust calibration can better handle these uncertainties, but usually requires extensive model simulations, making it impractical for physically based environmental models. To overcome these issues, we use a new metamodeling approach using stochastic emulation. This me..

The carbon offset market is a voluntary market where firms trade carbon offsets to compensate for their emissions and comply with cap-and-trade regulations. In contrast to the emission trading market, which involves government-allocated emission quotas, the carbon offset market trades offsets generated from certified emission reduction projects by independent suppliers. While both markets operate concurrently, they are governed by distinct pricing mechanisms and regulatory structures. We develop a game-theoretic model that incorporates the supply side of the offset market, often neglected in previous literature, and analyze how offsets influence firm behavior and emissions trading dynamics. ..

In Open Veins of Latin America (1971), Eduardo Galeano argued that colonial interventions in Latin America organised the regional economy around raw material exports and drained the continent of valuable resources and labour, producing conditions of underdevelopment. Scholars have argued that this dynamic continues today, where the suppression of prices and input costs in peripheral regions enables the global North to appropriate resources and value through ‘unequal exchange’. Building on this analysis and grounded in the Marxist tradition of dependency theory, this study empirically assesses Latin America's position with respect to unequal exchange of natural resources and labour embodi..

This study investigates the domestic transmission of inflation by examining how price dynamics interact within the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US, the UK, and Japan over the period January 1988 (January 1993 for the US) to March 2025. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness framework, we quantify the extent and evolution of inflation interdependencies across disaggregated price series. The results show that inflation is driven not only by external shocks and policy conditions but also by endogenous interactions within the price system. Inflation transmission remains moderate on average but intensifies during periods of elevated inflation, indicating..

In Open Veins of Latin America (1971), Eduardo Galeano argued that colonial interventions in Latin America organised the regional economy around raw material exports and drained the continent of valuable resources and labour, producing conditions of underdevelopment. Scholars have argued that this dynamic continues today, where the suppression of prices and input costs in peripheral regions enables the global North to appropriate resources and value through ‘unequal exchange’. Building on this analysis and grounded in the Marxist tradition of dependency theory, this study empirically assesses Latin America's position with respect to unequal exchange of natural resources and labour embodi..

Capacity markets are increasingly used to secure electricity-system reliability, but their auction designs raise persistent concerns about market power. This paper examines strategic capacity withholding in the British Capacity Market, which procures future capacity through a three-stage process: pre-qualification, disclosure of aggregate qualified supply, and a descending-clock auction with a uniform clearing price. We develop a formal model in which a small number of large portfolio bidders interact with a competitive fringe of uncertain size. The central result is that the same auction rule generates different observable forms of market power depending on bidders’ information about frin..

Capacity markets are increasingly used to secure electricity-system reliability, but their auction designs raise persistent concerns about market power. This paper examines strategic capacity withholding in the British Capacity Market, which procures future capacity through a three-stage process: pre-qualification, disclosure of aggregate qualified supply, and a descending-clock auction with a uniform clearing price. We develop a formal model in which a small number of large portfolio bidders interact with a competitive fringe of uncertain size. The central result is that the same auction rule generates different observable forms of market power depending on bidders’ information about frin..

How does trade fragmentation affect inflationary pressures? What is the response of monetary policy needed to sustain inflation at target? To address these questions, we develop a two-sector, small open-economy model that features imperfect international risk-sharing and household heterogeneity, capturing both the supply-side and demand-side effects of fragmentation. In the model, fragmentation takes the form of import-price increases or a decline in tradable-sector productivity. The sign and magnitude of its impact on inflationary pressures, and the appropriate policy response, depend not only on the direct effect of higher import prices or lower productivity on supply but also, crucially, ..

How does trade fragmentation affect inflationary pressures? What is the response of monetary policy needed to sustain inflation at target? To address these questions, we develop a two-sector, small open-economy model that features imperfect international risk-sharing and household heterogeneity, capturing both the supply-side and demand-side effects of fragmentation. In the model, fragmentation takes the form of import-price increases or a decline in tradable-sector productivity. The sign and magnitude of its impact on inflationary pressures, and the appropriate policy response, depend not only on the direct effect of higher import prices or lower productivity on supply but also, crucially, ..

The primary objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of the level of, and trends over time in, Japan's household saving rate, with emphasis on the impact of the age structure of the population, and to make projections about future trends therein. The paper finds that Japan's household saving rate has not always been high either absolutely or relative to other countries, contrary to popular belief, and that, if we confine ourselves to the postwar period, it was only during the 25-year period from 1961 to 1986 that it exceeded 15%. Past and future trends in Japan's household saving rate can largely be explained by changes in the age structure of her population, but declines in th..

The primary objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of the level of, and trends over time in, Japan's household saving rate, with emphasis on the impact of the age structure of the population, and to make projections about future trends therein. The paper finds that Japan's household saving rate has not always been high either absolutely or relative to other countries, contrary to popular belief, and that, if we confine ourselves to the postwar period, it was only during the 25-year period from 1961 to 1986 that it exceeded 15%. Past and future trends in Japan's household saving rate can largely be explained by changes in the age structure of her population, but declines in th..

The European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has the dual objective of preventing carbon leakage and encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies abroad. Yet, pursuing both objectives with the same mechanism results in incomplete carbon leakage protection unless global carbon prices converge. As the current geopolitical situation makes rapid convergence seem unlikely, an extension of free allowance allocation is being discussed for affected sectors. This would, however, mute most carbon pricing incentives and reduce carbon pricing revenues. This paper argues that until progress on global carbon pricing is reached, the CBAM should be reformed to use standardized values rather tha..