Economics: Research Guide

Research on the determinants of election fraud typically focuses on conventional factors such as election monitoring, legal punishments, and voter education. This paper examines an often-overlooked factor: whether polling location (e.g., school, place of worship) influences election fraud. Combining validated fraud measures from the 2009 Afghan presidential election with a novel instrumental variable approach, we find that polling centers within schools report an 8 percentage-point lower likelihood of fraud compared to those within mosques. Two mechanisms may explain this difference. First, mosques designated as polling centers were more likely to be attacked by the Taliban, likely suppressi..

Clean-technology investment under policy-regime transition exhibits a structure that the canonical real-options framework characterises only partially. We develop a dynamic-investment model in which an irreversible project decision is taken sequentially across four lifecycle stages (front-end design, final investment decision, construction, operations) under two sources of stochastic variation: the payoff-determining state variable (e.g. carbon price, technology cost) and the policy-regime credibility belief that determines whether the policy environment will persist over the investment horizon. The optimal cancellation policy is characterised by stage-dependent thresholds that respond to fi..

Clean-technology investment under policy-regime transition exhibits a structure that the canonical real-options framework characterises only partially. We develop a dynamic-investment model in which an irreversible project decision is taken sequentially across four lifecycle stages (front-end design, final investment decision, construction, operations) under two sources of stochastic variation: the payoff-determining state variable (e.g. carbon price, technology cost) and the policy-regime credibility belief that determines whether the policy environment will persist over the investment horizon. The optimal cancellation policy is characterised by stage-dependent thresholds that respond to fi..

Countries with a low share of global emissions may perceive their cooperation in decarbonization as less critical yet economically burdensome. While non-cooperating countries may benefit from reduced global emissions at lower direct costs, they can also face significant environmental consequences. This paper investigates an asymmetric scenario in which most countries engage in decarbonization efforts while a single country adopts a free-riding strategy, focusing on Mexico as a case study. Our study provides insights into investment needs compared to environmental implications for a country with a free-riding strategy. The investment needs under free-riding tend to be higher than a baseline s..

Countries with a low share of global emissions may perceive their cooperation in decarbonization as less critical yet economically burdensome. While non-cooperating countries may benefit from reduced global emissions at lower direct costs, they can also face significant environmental consequences. This paper investigates an asymmetric scenario in which most countries engage in decarbonization efforts while a single country adopts a free-riding strategy, focusing on Mexico as a case study. Our study provides insights into investment needs compared to environmental implications for a country with a free-riding strategy. The investment needs under free-riding tend to be higher than a baseline s..

Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk.

Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk.

Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk.

Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk.

In Open Veins of Latin America (1971), Eduardo Galeano argued that colonial interventions in Latin America organised the regional economy around raw material exports and drained the continent of valuable resources and labour, producing conditions of underdevelopment. Scholars have argued that this dynamic continues today, where the suppression of prices and input costs in peripheral regions enables the global North to appropriate resources and value through ‘unequal exchange’. Building on this analysis and grounded in the Marxist tradition of dependency theory, this study empirically assesses Latin America's position with respect to unequal exchange of natural resources and labour embodi..

This study investigates the domestic transmission of inflation by examining how price dynamics interact within the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US, the UK, and Japan over the period January 1988 (January 1993 for the US) to March 2025. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness framework, we quantify the extent and evolution of inflation interdependencies across disaggregated price series. The results show that inflation is driven not only by external shocks and policy conditions but also by endogenous interactions within the price system. Inflation transmission remains moderate on average but intensifies during periods of elevated inflation, indicating..

In Open Veins of Latin America (1971), Eduardo Galeano argued that colonial interventions in Latin America organised the regional economy around raw material exports and drained the continent of valuable resources and labour, producing conditions of underdevelopment. Scholars have argued that this dynamic continues today, where the suppression of prices and input costs in peripheral regions enables the global North to appropriate resources and value through ‘unequal exchange’. Building on this analysis and grounded in the Marxist tradition of dependency theory, this study empirically assesses Latin America's position with respect to unequal exchange of natural resources and labour embodi..

The primary objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of the level of, and trends over time in, Japan's household saving rate, with emphasis on the impact of the age structure of the population, and to make projections about future trends therein. The paper finds that Japan's household saving rate has not always been high either absolutely or relative to other countries, contrary to popular belief, and that, if we confine ourselves to the postwar period, it was only during the 25-year period from 1961 to 1986 that it exceeded 15%. Past and future trends in Japan's household saving rate can largely be explained by changes in the age structure of her population, but declines in th..

The primary objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of the level of, and trends over time in, Japan's household saving rate, with emphasis on the impact of the age structure of the population, and to make projections about future trends therein. The paper finds that Japan's household saving rate has not always been high either absolutely or relative to other countries, contrary to popular belief, and that, if we confine ourselves to the postwar period, it was only during the 25-year period from 1961 to 1986 that it exceeded 15%. Past and future trends in Japan's household saving rate can largely be explained by changes in the age structure of her population, but declines in th..

The European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has the dual objective of preventing carbon leakage and encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies abroad. Yet, pursuing both objectives with the same mechanism results in incomplete carbon leakage protection unless global carbon prices converge. As the current geopolitical situation makes rapid convergence seem unlikely, an extension of free allowance allocation is being discussed for affected sectors. This would, however, mute most carbon pricing incentives and reduce carbon pricing revenues. This paper argues that until progress on global carbon pricing is reached, the CBAM should be reformed to use standardized values rather tha..

The European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has the dual objective of preventing carbon leakage and encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies abroad. Yet, pursuing both objectives with the same mechanism results in incomplete carbon leakage protection unless global carbon prices converge. As the current geopolitical situation makes rapid convergence seem unlikely, an extension of free allowance allocation is being discussed for affected sectors. This would, however, mute most carbon pricing incentives and reduce carbon pricing revenues. This paper argues that until progress on global carbon pricing is reached, the CBAM should be reformed to use standardized values rather tha..

Overemployment – working more hours than desired – affects nearly one-third of European workers, yet its consequences remain understudied. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP, 1984-2019, N = 43, 570) and individual fixed-effects models with leads and lags, we examine whether overemployment is associated with a deterioration in wellbeing and health, and whether potential adverse impacts persist as long as the overemployment state continues or whether people get used to working long hours. We find that overemployment is associated with a substantial decline in mental health, with impacts that intensify rather than attenuate over time. Specifically, the SF-12 mental health..

Overemployment – working more hours than desired – affects nearly one-third of European workers, yet its consequences remain understudied. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP, 1984-2019, N = 43, 570) and individual fixed-effects models with leads and lags, we examine whether overemployment is associated with a deterioration in wellbeing and health, and whether potential adverse impacts persist as long as the overemployment state continues or whether people get used to working long hours. We find that overemployment is associated with a substantial decline in mental health, with impacts that intensify rather than attenuate over time. Specifically, the SF-12 mental health..

When do firms trade technology for market access? Theories of foreign investment typically frame host state bargaining power in terms of domestic characteristics like market size. This article examines how the structure of global markets in which firms are embedded and the inter-firm competition this generates shape firm-state bargaining over technology in ways not reducible to host state attributes. I argue that as the number of firms in an industry rises and global market shares become less evenly divided among them, weak market players face strong incentives to transfer technology in return for access to new markets. In this context, host states can “divide and conquer” investors to s..

The status of temporary worker is unique. It involves a three-way relationship between an employee, an employer, and a user. Accidents are particularly prevalent for this type of employment and are slow to decrease. Our inquiry focuses on the causes of this prevalence. Drawing on fundamental knowledge, field experience, and a study in the construction sector, we demonstrate that specific prevention methods can be developed, tested, and then scaled up. These methods take into account the diversity of employment trajectories, user profiles, and employer profiles. This qualitative approach to prevention for temporary workers requires consolidating a common knowledge base for prevention stakehol..

Policies promoting green transportation, particularly cycling, are gaining importance in the context of climate change. In order to elucidate the mechanisms behind cycling adoption, this paper proposes a novel compartmental model, which incorporates the time-varying effects of both social influence and contextual factors. We provide a mathematical analysis of the model, showing global convergence to an equilibrium. We also developed a case study of Grenoble, France, which showcases the model's ability to characterize cycling adoption dynamics, highlighting its potential to support sustainable transportation policy design.

Policies promoting green transportation, particularly cycling, are gaining importance in the context of climate change. In order to elucidate the mechanisms behind cycling adoption, this paper proposes a novel compartmental model, which incorporates the time-varying effects of both social influence and contextual factors. We provide a mathematical analysis of the model, showing global convergence to an equilibrium. We also developed a case study of Grenoble, France, which showcases the model's ability to characterize cycling adoption dynamics, highlighting its potential to support sustainable transportation policy design.

The EU has set an objective of reaching 10% of landscape features on its agricultural land by 2030 as part of its latest Biodiversity Strategy. This share is often considered the minimum amount of semi-natural habitats required to halt biodiversity declines and ensure the provision of ecosystem services. This policy objective has faced considerable political opposition due to potentially high budgetary and opportunity costs. We explore farmers' preferences towards hypothetical incentive schemes that ensure the provision of 10% of semi-natural habitats at the landscape level. We use the results of a discrete choice experiment to estimate the total budgetary costs of different schemes and pote..

The EU has set an objective of reaching 10% of landscape features on its agricultural land by 2030 as part of its latest Biodiversity Strategy. This share is often considered the minimum amount of semi-natural habitats required to halt biodiversity declines and ensure the provision of ecosystem services. This policy objective has faced considerable political opposition due to potentially high budgetary and opportunity costs. We explore farmers' preferences towards hypothetical incentive schemes that ensure the provision of 10% of semi-natural habitats at the landscape level. We use the results of a discrete choice experiment to estimate the total budgetary costs of different schemes and pote..

This paper studies how the distribution of preference intensity affects product survival. Consumers may have the same average valuation of a product attribute, yet differ sharply in how concentrated that valuation is across the population. I show that this distinction matters for market selection. In a differentiated-product economy with fixed operating costs, a product survives only if it attracts enough revenue to cover its fixed cost. When the revenue contribution of consumers is convex in preference intensity, concentrating a fixed aggregate valuation among fewer high-intensity consumers raises the revenue of high-attribute products. Thus, small groups of strongly attached consumers can ..

This paper studies how the distribution of preference intensity affects product survival. Consumers may have the same average valuation of a product attribute, yet differ sharply in how concentrated that valuation is across the population. I show that this distinction matters for market selection. In a differentiated-product economy with fixed operating costs, a product survives only if it attracts enough revenue to cover its fixed cost. When the revenue contribution of consumers is convex in preference intensity, concentrating a fixed aggregate valuation among fewer high-intensity consumers raises the revenue of high-attribute products. Thus, small groups of strongly attached consumers can ..